In July 2025, the total business climate indicator decreases by 1.1 percentage points in comparison with June (from 21.7% to 20.6%) (Figure 1), as a decrease of the indicator is registered in the industry and retail trade.
Figure 1. Business climate - total
Industry. The composite indicator ‘business climate in industry’ decreases by 1.0 percentage point (from 18.4% to 17.4%) (Figure 2), which is due to the reserved industrial entrepreneurs’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months. The inquiry reports certain improvement in their opinions about new orders inflow over the last 3 months, but that is not accompanied by increased expectations about the production activity over the next 3 months (Figure 3).
Figure 2. Business climate in industry
Figure 3. Expected production activity in industry over the next 3 months
The main problems limiting the activity in the sector remain the uncertain economic environment and shortage of labour, pointed out respectively by 44.7% and 36.3% of the enterprises (Figure 4).
Figure 4. Factors limiting the activity in industry
(Relative share of enterprises)
The managers’ forecasts concerning the selling prices in the industry over the next 3 months are in a direction of an increase (Figure 5).
Figure 5. Selling prices expectations in industry over the next 3 months
Construction. In July, the composite indicator ‘business climate in construction’ increases by 1.8 percentage points (from 26.1% to 27.9%) (Figure 6) as a result of the optimistic construction entrepreneurs’ expectations about the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months. In their opinion, the present production assurance with orders is increased, but their forecasts about the construction activity over the next 3 months are more unfavourable (Figure 7).
Figure 6. Business climate in construction
Figure 7. Expected construction activity over the next 3 months
The most serious difficulties for the business development continue to be the uncertain economic environment, shortage of labour and costs of materials, although compared to June, a decrease of the negative impact of the second factor is observed (Figure 8).
Figure 8. Factors limiting the activity in construction
(Relative share of enterprises)
Regarding the selling prices in the construction, the managers’ expectations are them to preserve their level over the next 3 months (Figure 9).
Figure 9. Selling prices expectations in construction over the next 3 months
Retail trade. The composite indicator ‘business climate in retail trade’ drops by 5.4 percentage points (from 30.4% to 25.0%) (Figure 10), which is due to the shifting of the retailers’ assessments and expectations (Figure 11) about the business situation of the enterprises from ‘better’ towards preserving ‘the same’. Their forecasts about the volume of sales and orders placed with suppliers over the next 3 months remain reserved.
Figure 10. Business climate in retail trade
Figure 11. Expected business situation in retail trade over the next 6 months
The factor, limiting with the most extent the activity of the enterprises is the competition in the branch, followed by the uncertain economic environment, insufficient demand and shortage of labour (Figure 12).
Figure 12. Factors limiting the activity in retail trade
(Relative share of enterprises)
The retailers do not foresee a change in the selling prices over the next 3 months (Figure 13).
Figure 13. Selling prices expectations in retail trade over the next 3 months
Service sector[1]. In July, the composite indicator ‘business climate in service sector’ preserves approximately its level from the previous month (from 15.4% to 15.1%) (Figure 14). The managers’ forecasts about both the business situation of the enterprises over the next 6 months and the demand for services over the next 3 months (Figure 15) are unfavourable.
[1] Excl. trade.
Figure 14. Business climate in service sector
Figure 15. Expected demand in service sector over the next 3 months
The main obstacle for the business development remains the uncertain economic environment, pointed out by 50.5% of the enterprises. In second and third place are the competition in the branch and shortage of labour (Figure 16).
Figure 16. Factors limiting the activity in service sector
(Relative share of enterprises)
Regarding the selling prices in the service sector, the managers expect them to preserve their level over the next 3 months (Figure 17).
Figure 17. Selling prices expectations in the service sector over the next 3 months
Methodological notes
The business surveys in the industry, construction, retail trade and in the service sector gather information about the entrepreneurs’ opinions about the situation and development of their business.
Since May 2002, all business surveys have been co-financed by NSI and the European Commission ( ) according to agreements signed between these two institutions. NSI has undertaken to conduct the surveys according to the Harmonized EU Programme. Any notice or publication of NSI reflects the author’s view, and the Commission is not liable for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.
Since July 2010, NSI has started publishing the business surveys data according to the new Classification of Economic Activities (NACE.BG - 2008) (NACE Rev. 2). All of the time series have been recalculated according to the Classification and are comparable throughout time.
The replies to questions from the inquiries are presented in a three-option ordinal scale of the following type: ‘up’, ‘unchanged’, ‘down’ or ‘above normal’, ‘normal’, and ‘below normal’. The balances of assessments are calculated as a difference of the relative shares of extreme variants of answers. The ‘Business climate indicator’ is a geometric mean of balances of assessments of the present business situation and the expected business situation of enterprises in the next 6 months.
The total business climate indicator is a weighted average of four branch business climate indicators in: industry, construction, retail trade and in the service sector. The last indicator of the business climate in the service sector has been included in the total time series since May 2002.
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