Inflation and Consumer Price Indices - September 2026 - flash estimate

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to the flash estimates of NSI, in September 2026, the monthly inflation rate is expected to be -0.3% and the annual inflation rate is expected to be 5.6%. In September 2026, compared to the previous month, the following groups are expected to have the highest decrease: ‘Recreation, sport and culture’ (-10.4%), ‘Restaurants and accommodation services’ (-1.1%) and ‘Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance’ (-0.5%). The following groups are expected to have the highest increase: ‘Transport’ (3.4%), ‘Education services’ (3.2%) and ‘Alcoholic beverages, tobacco‘ (1.1%).

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

According to the flash estimates of NSI, in September 2026, the monthly inflation rate is expected to be -0.1% and the annual inflation rate is expected to be 5.6%. In September 2026, compared to the previous month, the following groups are expected to have the highest decrease: ‘Restaurants and accommodation services’ (-4.3%),  ‘Recreation, sport and culture’ (-3.3%) and ‘Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance’ (-0.2%). The following groups are expected to have the highest increase: ‘Education services’ (3.2%), ‘Transport’ (1.7%) and ‘Alcoholic beverages, tobacco’ (1.0%).

Price Index of a Small Basket (PISB)

According to the flash estimates of NSI, in September 2026, the monthly rate, measured by PISB, is expected to be 0.2% and the annual rate is expected to be 1.9%. In September 2026, compared to the previous month, the prices of goods and services in the small basket for the 20% of households with the lowest income are expected to have:

• ‘Food products’ - an increase of 0.7%;
• ‘Services’ - an increase of 0.1%; 
• ‘Non-food products’ - a decrease of 0.7%.

The press release for inflation and consumer price indices for September 2026 will be published on 14 October 2026.

Methodological notes

Flash estimates for inflation and consumer price indices are calculated based on registered prices, which account for about 90% of all planned registrations for the reference month. The remaining received data are included in the calculation of the indices of consumer prices of the final data. 

Flash estimates and final data for inflation and consumer price indices are published on NSI’s website, according to the Release calendar.

The chain consumer price indices measure the price change in the current month compared to the previous month. The chain consumer price indices are used as a measure of monthly inflation.

The 12-month consumer price indices measure the price changes occurring between the current month and the same month of the previous year. The 12-month consumer price indices are used as a measure of annual inflation.

Statistical area: Inflation and Consumer Price Indices:

Inflation and Consumer Price Indices|National Statistical Institute (nsi.bg)

IS Infostat: Consumer prices:

https://nsi.bg/en/infostat

Metadata and Methodology:

Consumer Price Indices (CPI)|National Statistical Institute (nsi.bg)

Inflation Rate Calculator:

Inflation Rate Calculator|National Statistical Institute (nsi.bg)