Inflation and Consumer Price Indices - January 2026 - preliminary data

The monthly inflation rate was 0.6%, while the annual inflation rate was 3.5%, according to the preliminary data of NSI. The inflation rate is measured by the CPI, with monthly inflation referring to January 2026 compared to the previous month, and the annual inflation is for January 2026 compared to the same month of the previous year.

In January 2026, compared to the previous month, the increase was registered in the following groups: 'Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services’ (1.8%), ‘Restaurants and accommodation services’ (1.6%) and ‘Insurance and financial services’ (1.3%). The decrease in the prices was recorded in the following groups: ‘Clothing and footwear’ (-4.0%) and ‘Information and communication’ (-0.3%).

Consumer Price Index (CPI)

According to the preliminary data of NSI, in January 2026, the monthly inflation rate, measured by CPI, was 0.6% and the annual inflation rate in January 2026, compared to January 2025, was 3.5%^[1].

The annual average inflation rate for the period February 2025 - January 2026 compared to the period February 2024 - January 2025 was 4.6%.

Monthly inflation

In January 2026, the prices of goods and services increased in the following consumer groups:

• ‘Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services’ - an increase of 1.8%;
• ‘Restaurants and accommodation services’ - an increase of 1.6%;
• ‘Insurance and financial services’ - an increase of 1.3%;
• ‘Recreation, sport and culture’ - an increase of 1.2%;
• ‘Food and non-alcoholic beverages’ - an increase of 0.9%;
• ‘Health’ - an increase of 0.9%;
• ‘Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance’ - an increase of 0.9%;
• ‘Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’ - an increase of 0.8%;
• ‘Education services’ - an increase of 0.7%;
• ‘Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics’ - an increase of 0.5%;
• ‘Transport’ - an increase of 0.1%.

The prices of goods and services decreased in the following consumer groups:

• ‘Clothing and footwear’ - a decrease of 4.0%;
• ‘Information and communication’ - a decrease of 0.3%.

Accumulated inflation

The accumulated inflation, measured by CPI, for the last three years (January 2026 compared to January 2023) was 11.5% and for the last five years (January 2026 compared to January 2021) was 42.1%.

Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP)

In January 2026, the monthly inflation rate, measured by HICP, was 0.6% and the annual inflation rate in January 2026 compared to January 2025 was      2.3%^[2].

The annual average inflation rate for the period February 2025 - January 2026 compared to the period February 2024 - January 2025 was 3.4%.

Monthly inflation

In terms of HICP, in January 2026, the prices of goods and services increased in the following consumer groups:

• ‘Personal care, social protection and miscellaneous goods and services’ - an increase of 3.1%;
• ‘Restaurants and accommodation services’ - an increase of 1.7%;
• ‘Recreation, sport and culture’ - an increase of 1.1%;
• ‘Furnishings, household equipment and routine household maintenance’ - an increase of 1.0%;
• ‘Health’ - an increase of 1.0%;
• ‘Food and non-alcoholic beverages’ - an increase of 0.9%;
• ‘Housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels’ - an increase of 0.8%;
• ‘Insurance and financial services’ - an increase of 0.8%;
• ‘Education services’ - an increase of 0.7%;
• ‘Alcoholic beverages, tobacco and narcotics’ - an increase of 0.5%.

The prices of goods and services decreased in the following consumer groups:

• ‘Clothing and footwear’ - a decrease of 4.0%;
• ‘Transport’ - a decrease of 0.2%;
• ‘Information and communication’ - a decrease of 0.2%.

Accumulated inflation

The accumulated inflation, measured by HICP, for the last three years (January 2026 compared to January 2023) was 10.3% and for the last five years (January 2026 compared to January 2021) was 35.8%.

Price Index of a Small Basket (PISB)

According to the preliminary data of NSI, in January 2026, the monthly rate, measured by PISB, was 0.5% and the annual rate in January 2026, compared to January 2025, was 2.9%^[3].

In January 2026, compared to the previous month, the prices of goods and services in the small basket for the 20% of households with the lowest income changed as follows:

• ‘Food products’ - an increase of 0.7%;
• ‘Services’ - an increase of 0.6%.

The prices of ‘Non-food products’ remained unchanged.

Methodological notes

In relation to the membership of Bulgaria in the euro area from the 1st of January 2026, the National Statistical Institute (NSI) is obliged to produce and publish inflation flash estimate. This is valid for all country members of the euro area. The NSI publishes on its website an annotation for the inflation flash estimate, according to the Release Calendar of statistical information.

In compliance with Regulation (EC) No 2024/3159 since January 2026 NSI applies new European Classification of Individual Consumption According to Purpose version 2, aligned with the United Nations UN COICOP 2018 classification for CPI, HICP and PISB.

In compliance with Implementing Regulation (EC) No 2025/1182 since January 2026 the base year for CPI, HICP and PISB has been changed and the all indices have been calculated and published at 2025 as a base year (www.nsi.bg).

In compliance with Regulation (EC) No 2024/3159 since January 2026 Games of chance has been included in the CPI and HICP as part of Recreation services under the division of Recreation, sport and culture.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is the official measure of inflation in the Republic of Bulgaria. It measures the total relative price change of goods and services used by households for private (non-production) consumption. It is calculated by applying the structure of Bulgarian households’ final monetary consumption expenditures. The main source of information for the expenditures is the household budget survey in the country. The CPI in year t is calculated with the expenditures’ structure of year t - 1.

The Harmonized Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) is the comparable measure of inflation across EU Member States. It is one of the criteria for price stability and the readiness of Bulgaria to join the Eurozone. HICP, as well as CPI, measures the total relative price change of goods and services. Both indices are calculated using the same basket of goods and services but differ with concern to the weights used. HICP is calculated using weights, which reflect the individual and collective consumption of all households (incl. institutional and foreign households) in the country’s economic territory. The main source of information for HICP weights is the national accounts (NA) data. For calculating the HICP in 2026, NA data for households’ final monetary consumption expenditures (HFMCE) - domestic concept in 2024 is used. NA 2024 data are reviewed and updated to make them representative of 2025.

The Price Index of a Small Basket (PISB) measures the relative average price changes of 100 socially useful and vital living goods and services. The weights of this index reflect the expenditures of the 20% lowest households’ incomes. The source of the information on weights is the Households Budget Survey in the country. This index in year t is calculated with the weights of year t - 1.

The chain consumer price indices measure the price change in the current month compared to the previous month. The chain consumer price indices are used as a measure of monthly inflation.

The 12-month consumer price indices measure the price changes occurring between the current month and the same month of the previous year. The 12-month consumer price indices are used as a measure of annual inflation.

Consumer price indices over December of the previous year measure the accumulated changes in prices of the current month concerning December of the previous year. Consumer price indices over December of the previous year are used as measures of inflation since the beginning of the year. In December of each year, the 12-month index is equal to the index over December of the previous year.

The annual average consumer price indices measure the average price change during the 12 months of the current year compared to the average price change during the 12 months of the previous year. The annual average consumer price indices are used as a measure of the annual average inflation.

CPI as well as PISB in January 2026 are released as preliminary since they are calculated with the household budget data for the period October 2024 - September 2025. The final CPI and PISB indices for January 2026, calculated with the annual 2025 household budget data for the weights, will be released along with the February 2026 data.

Statistical area: Inflation and Consumer Price Indices:

Inflation and Consumer Price Indices|National Statistical Institute (nsi.bg)

IS Infostat: Consumer prices:

https://infostat.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/module.jsf?x_2=68

Metadata and Methodology:

Consumer Price Indices (CPI)|National Statistical Institute (nsi.bg)

Inflation Rate Calculator:

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Annex

Table 1

Table 2

Table 3

^[1] According to the CPI methodology. For more information, see the Methodological notes on pages 5 and 6 and Annex, Table 1.

^[2] According to the HICP methodology. For more information, see the Methodological notes on pages 5 and 6 and Annex, Table 2.

^[3] For more information, see the Methodological notes on pages 5 and 6 and Annex, Table 3.