National Statistical Institute of Bulgaria informs users of statistical information that the volume 3 - 4/2011 of Statistics Journal is available. The issue is only in Bulgarian (summary in English and Russian). In this volume are included the following chapters:
I. Theory and methodology of the statistical surveys.
II. Statistical surveys and analysis.
III. Historical development of the statistical theory and practice.
IV. Information, reviews, consultations.
І. In Theory and methodology of the statistical surveys, the following articles are published:
• Measuring human capital in the economy. Applications for Вulgaria - author Ralitsa Simeonova-Ganeva, Ph.D., Chief Assistant, Faculty of Economics, SU ‘St. Kliment Ohridski’.
The article has two main objectives: The first one is to review the most commonly used methods for measuring human capital in macroeconomic analysis. Here in a synthesized manner there is a summary of the methods using various educational characteristics such as literacy rate of population, rates of enrolment in the system of education, educational attainment and average number of years of education, labor income and quality of education. The Measurement challenge is solving the problems of depreciation of human capital, as well as those relating to the quality of education obtained. Another disadvantage of the implemented approaches stems from objective reasons imposed by the general provisions that education leads to equal accumulation of human capital for all trained persons. The inclusion of individual factors in measuring the stock of human capital is still unsolved problem in economic theory and empirics. The second objective of this paper is to apply some of these approaches to the economy of Bulgaria during the times of totalitarian rule (for which there is no public data). As a result, the survey provides annual data, measuring the level of human capital in the country for the purposes of future empiric analyses.
• Regional analysis of the process of correspondence between supply and demand of labor in the Republic of Bulgaria - author Plamen Petkov, Ph.D., Aassociate Professor, Mathematics and Statistics Department, Academy of Economics ‘E. Tsenov’, Svishtov.
In this study using the concept of the aggregated Beveridge curve there is an examination of the effectiveness of the matching process (combination) of the job vacancies with seekers of employment, using panel data by district in Bulgaria. Based on monthly data covering the period from January 2004 to May 2011, using panel econometric methods there are analyses of the regional aspects of the matching process. The panel approach is implemented by testing of econometric models, assessed by both the unified method of the smallest squares, and models which take into account the impact of fixed and random effects. Using diagnostic criteria it is discovered that the most appropriate method is the one with a fixed effect.
• Use of latent variables in the introduction of missing values - author Deyan Lazarov, Chief asisitent, Burgas Free University.
The study considered missing values and offers the possibility of their analysis with latent variables. Initially the mechanism of occurrence of missing values by simply using the opportunities of the cluster is determined. As an example, the Labour Force Survey conducted by NSI in 2007 in Bulgaria is used. The analysis covered units that were occupied at that time. Three main attributes that occur in missing values (MV) are isolated. After analyzing the missing data mechanisms MV it was establish that it is not missing at random (NMAR). A consistent cluster analysis (K-medium) for adaptation of two groups of units in which there is significant difference in the expression of meanings in different signs is applied. In order to illustrate the method one of the groups named ‘Cluster 7’ is used. Explanatory factor analysis is applied, first and then confirmation of separation of the various latent variables-factors is also applied. There is also evidence of a latent variable encompassing all signs of MV, called ‘missing’. Based on the results possibilities for use of this latent missing’ variable ‘as a factor in the subsequent analysis and missing data implementation.
ІІ. In Statistical surveys and analysis, the following articles are included:
• Evaluation of the reproducibility behaviour of women in Bulgaria by age and ethnicity according to the Census 2011 - author Todor Kaloyanov, Ph.D., Aassociate Professor, Statistics and Econometrics Department, University of National and World Economy, Sofia.
The paper makes a comparative analysis of the reproductive behaviour of women in the Republic of Bulgaria according to data from Census 2011. Object of the study are the women who at the time of the census ranged from 12 years to 69 years of aged. Cohorts are formed by five-year age intervals, allowing clear differentiation of the different generations and identification of the respective changes which have occurred in their behaviour over time. The analysis includes comparisons of the distributions obtained by further inclusion of the attribute ‘ethnic group’, which allows for search of similarities and differences in the reproductive models of women from the major ethnic groups in our country.
• Disability of population in Bulgaria - author Iordan Kalchev, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Chair of Sociology at the South-West University ‘Neofit Rilski’.
The development and implementation of effective social policy for social integration and the insurance of conditions for full-quality lives of people with disabilities by the State requires the provision of information for that part of the population. Indicators for identification of people with disabilities have been included in the programs of population censuses since 1992 and the voluntary principle was applied during the registration.
The article analyzes the changes in the disability of population in the last twenty years, the main socio-demographic and economic characteristics of people with disabilities and established loss of working capacity by specialized medical expertise. The analysis used absolute and relative measures of the scope and level of disability among the population, some of which are presented in tabular and graphical form.
• Religion is a support for social solidarity - author Maria Serafimova, Ph.D., Associate Professor, Chair of Sociology, South-West University ‘Neofit Rilski’.
Religious representations are collective representations, which express collective realities. The rites are a manner of acting which take rise in the midst of the assembled groups which are destined to excite, maintain or recreate certain mental states in these groups. Collective representations are a result of an immense cooperation, which stretches out not only into space but into time as well. To make them, a multitude of minds have associated, united and combined their ideas and sentiments. For them, many generations have accumulated their experience and knowledge.
ІV. In Information, reviews, consultations, the following information is published:
• Useful and actual survey - author Todor Todorov, Ph.D., Aassociate Professor, Academy of Economics ‘E. Tsenov’, Svishtov.
Information about publication ‘Ethnic Composition Determination by Population Censuses’ - author Dimitar Arkadiev, Ph.D., Aassociate Professor, ‘St. Cyril and St. Methodius’ University of Veliko Tarnovo.
The digital collections are accessible on-line free of charge on http://statlib.nsi.bg/en.
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