Consumer survey - July 2025

In July 2025, the total consumer confidence indicator decreases by 4.7 percentage points in comparison with April (from -16.4% to -21.1%) (Figure 1), which is due to the decreased confidence among both urban and rural inhabitants.

Figure 1. Consumer confidence indicator

The consumers’ total assessment of the development of the economic situation in the country over the last 12 months and their expectations over the next 12 months (Figure 2), are deteriorated compared to the previous survey, as a result of which the balance indicators decrease by 4.6 and 10.6 percentage points, respectively. In comparison with 3 months earlier, their assessments and expectations about the changes in the financial situation of their households are also more negative (Figure 3).

Figure 2. Expectations about the general economic situation in the country over the next 12 months

Figure 3. Expectations about the financial situation of households over the next 12 months

The consumers continue to consider that over the last 12 months there has been an increase of the consumer prices. At the same time, their inflation expectations about the next 12 months have strengthened, as a result of which the balance indicator increases by 14.8 percentage points (Figure 4).

Figure 4. Expectations about inflation over the next 12 months

As regards the unemployment in the country over the next 12 months, the forecasts shift towards preservation or slight reduction, as a result of which the balance indicator decreases by 4.5 percentage points (Figure 5).

Figure 5. Unemployment expectations over the next 12 months

The present economic situation in the country is assessed by the majority of the consumers as unfavourable for saving. However, in July certain optimism (by 6.1 percentage points) in the total assessments of the present situation for making major purchases of durable goods^[1] is observed, as the consumers’ intensions to make such expenditures over the next 12 months (Figure 6) are improved.

[1] When commenting on the replies regarding the purchases (expenditures), should be considered that the questions are asked on a quarterly basis, although these purchases (expenditures) are to be made by the consumers over a longer period of time. That is why it is normal for the prevailing values of balances of opinions to be permanently situated in the negative zone of the graphs. However, for the purpose of the economic analysis is important to consider the direction of development of balances of opinions as indicators of positive or negative change.

Figure 6. Intentions of making major purchases of durable goods over the next 12 months

Methodological notes

The survey is part of the harmonized program of the European Union for business and consumer surveys and it is representative of the population aged 18 and older.

The object of the survey are the persons aged 18 and older; the sampling method is random, clustered, and proportional to the population by region, incl. urban/rural inhabitants (154 clusters with 8 persons per cluster). The interviewing method is face-to-face. The questionnaire contains standardized questions about the financial situation of households, the general economic situation, inflation, unemployment, savings, intentions of making major purchases of durable goods or purchasing/building a home, or buying a car. The proposed variants of answers give an opportunity to arrange them from optimistic, through neutral, to pessimistic. The balance of opinions is calculated as a difference between the relative shares of positive opinions and the relative shares of negative opinions, as there is one specification: the strong positive opinions and the strong negative opinions are given a coefficient of 1, and the more moderate positive and negative opinions - a coefficient of 0.5.

The survey results are used to capture the direction of change of surveyed variables, incl. that of consumer confidence level, which gives an opportunity to analyze the tendencies in the development of public opinion on significant economic phenomena.

According to the Joint Harmonised EU Programme of Business and Consumer Surveys, the consumer confidence indicator is an arithmetic mean of the balances of the assessments and expectations about the financial situation of households, expectations about the general economic situation in the country and the intentions to make major purchases of durable goods.