Seasonally adjusted



TURNOVER INDICES IN SECTION 'ACCOMMODATION AND FOOD SERVICE ACTIVITIES' AT CURRENT PRICES - II QUARTER OF 20191
Seasonally adjusted data
Economic activities Eurostat code 2015 = 100 Percentage change (compared to the previous quarter)
Total I 133.85 -1.9
Accommodation I55 126.20 1.4
Food and beverage service activities I56 136.06 -3.7

1 Data are preliminary
23.08.2019
ACTIVITY OF NON-FINANCIAL ENTERPRISES - QUARTERLY SHORT-TERM BUSSINESS STATISTICS - Turnover indices in section 'Accommodation and food service activities'
Contact
Contact organisation

National Statistical Institute

Contact organisation unit

'Shotr-term business statistics and Transport statistics'  Department

Contact name

Lilqna Ralinska

Contact person function

State expert

Contact mail address

2, P. Volov Str.; 1038 Sofia, Bulgaria

Contact email address

[email protected]

Contact phone number

+359 2 9857 128

Contact fax number
Metadata update
Metadata last certified08 August 2019
Metadata last posted08 August 2019
Metadata last update08 August 2019
Statistical presentation
Data description

The index of turnover is a key indicator for assessing the current state and short-term trends in the development of the section 'Accommodation and food service activities'. The index follows the dynamics in the supply and demand of accommodation and food services, also records the influence of the ongoing economic processes in the country.

Quarterly turnover index measures changes in the turnover of enterprises section 'Accommodation and food service activities'. This information is suitable for monitoring of current economic developments and short-term forecasts.

Classification system

Classification of Economic Activities (for international use NACE.BG-2008)

Sector coverage

Section I 'Accommodation and food service activities' under NACE.BG-2008. The indices are calculated by section (a two-digit NACE.BG-2008) and section.

Statistical concepts and definitions

The turnover includes net revenues from sales of products, goods and services survey units(excluding VAT and other deductible taxes), and revenue from raw materials sold.

Statistical unit

A enterprise in section 'Accommodation and food service activities'.

Statistical population

The population of firms in section I 'Accommodation and food service activities' includes about 26 600 units, which are form sampling population of approximately 18 000 enterprises with an annual turnover exceeding over 10 thousand BGN. Of these observed a sample of about 2 000 enterprises, which form approximately 60% of the turnover of the section.

Reference area

At national level: The indices are calculated and published total for the territory of Bulgaria
At European level: Eurostat calculates and publishes aggregated data for EU Member States (EU28) countries and the euro area (EU19). Eurostat publishes data received from the 28 EU Member States, Norway and Switzerland.

Time coverage

The indices are published as time series from the first quarter of 2000 to the last reported quarter of the current reporting year.

Base period

The indices are calculated and published at 2015 as a base year.

Unit of measure

Per cent (%)

Reference period

Quarter

Institutional mandate
Legal acts and other agreements
  • COUNCIL REGULATION (EC) №1165/98 of 19 May 1998 concerning short-term business statistics (STS); 
  • REGULATION (EC) №1158/2005 of the European Parliament and of the Council amending, Regulation (EC) №1165/98; 
  • COMMISSION REGULATION (EC) №1503/2006 of the European Commission as regards of definitions and the periodicity of indicators on STS;
  • REGULATION (EC) №1893/2006 - translation to NACE Rev. 2 and groups of activities of STS;
  • COMMISSION REGULATION (EC) №472/2008 for the conversion of data base according to NACE Rev. 2
Data sharing

The indicators are transmitted to Eurostat at the same time with their national publication.

Confidentiality
Confidentiality - policy

Regulation (EC) №223/2009 on European statistics (article 20, paragraph 4) of  March 11, 2009, stipulates establishing common principles and guidelines to ensure the confidentiality of data used for the production of European statistics and the access to those confidential information as required for scientific and technological development and needs of users. Law on Statistics is stated that the individual data received and collected at the time of statistical surveys shall be statistical confidentiality and shall be used only for statistical purposes. Individual data obtained for the purposes of the statistical surveys, shall not be used as evidence to the bodies of the executive powers and the judicial authorities. Requirements, obligations and measures for data protection, as well as fines that can be imposed, are treated in separate chapters of the Law on Statistics, namely Chapter 6 'Protection of secrecy' and Chapter 9, 'Administrative penalty provisions'.

Confidentiality - data treatment

Individual data, data which could be indirectly identified, as well as aggregations of less than three statistical units and/or when the relative share of one parameter is more than 85% of the total volume of this parameter for all population units. Data which according to the Law on Statistics are confidential not published.

Release policy
Release calendar

At the national level - according to the terms set out in the Release Calendar presenting the results of the statistical surveys carried out by the National Statistical Institute. The turnover indices are published about 50-55 days after the end of the reference quarter.

Release calendar access

The calendar is available on the NSI website: http://www.nsi.bg/en/node/480

User access

Data are published on the NSI website, section Business statistics in accordance with the Law on Statistics and the European Statistics Code of Practice respecting the professional independence and aimed at objectivity, transparency and equal treatment of all consumers.

Frequency of dissemination

Quarterly

Accessibility and clarity
News release

Not published.

Publications

The indices are not presented in publications.

On-line database

Data on section I 'Accommodation and food service activities' are available to all users of the NSI website under the heading Business statistics - Multi-domain statistics - Short-term Business Statistics - Quarterly data - Turnover Indices in Services: http://www.nsi.bg/en/node/6887 

and online sistem INFOSTAT http://www.nsi.bg/infostat/pages/reports/result.jsf?x_2=217

 

Micro-data access

Micro data are neither distributed nor provided to the users.

Other

Not applicable.

Documentation on methodology
Quality documentation

Regulation (EC) №1165/98 and Regulation (EC) №1158/2005 on Short-term statistics required by the European Commission (Eurostat) regularly (every three years) to report to the European Parliament on the applicability of short-term data, their quality and revisions of the data. In March 2004 was launched a project to capture the quality of short-term indicators. Every year Member States should present to Eurostat detailed information about the quality of particular short-term indicators, which is part of the Principal European Economic Indicators.

Quality management
Quality assurance

The legal framework that regulates the production of short-term business statistics indicators states that statistics collected within the EU system must be of satisfactory quality and this quality and administrative burden that comes from what must be comparable across Member States. These criteria have been drawn up to ensure that these requirements are met, and that is reflected in the quality reports of the individual short-term indicators.

Quality assessment

The quality of the short-term variables is measured by each Member State according to common criteria. The quality of the variables is measured regularly by comparing them with other statistical information, if it is possible some quality indicators are calculated and in addition these indicators are checked for internal consistency.

Relevance
User needs
  • Eurostat;
  • Bulgarian state institutions and local authorities;
  • Business and NGOs;
  • Information and polling;
  • Analytical and associate professionals.
User satisfaction

User reviews are collected by:

  • Direct contact - via phone and email;
  • Indirect contact - through regional statistical offices; 
  • The customer satisfaction is not measured.
Completeness

All levels of detail that are required by the Regulations concerning STS is calculated and published.

Accuracy and reliability
Overall accuracy

The total population in section I 'Accommodation and food service activities' includes about 26 600 units, which form a sampling population of approximately 18 000 enterprises with an annual turnover exceeding 10 thousand BGN. Of these monthly observed sample about 2 000 units, which form approximately 60% of the turnover.

The main source of errors is the measurement errors which arise at the data collection stage for variety of reasons, for example respondents misunderstanding what information is required or non-providing precisely the desired information.

Shall be made efforts to avoid these errors by providing assistance to the reporting units, improv the instructions attached to the questionnaire, assist the statisticians in Regional statistical offices. Most of measurement errors are detected and corrected through the logical and arithmetical controls of the Information system 'Short-term statistics' (Online Information system for data collection, editing and processing of the STS information). The system carries out the statutory and warning controls and in a case there are errors, it displays a warning dialog error in the report. The system does not allow completion of the report until they have corrected these errors by statutory controls.

Sampling error

The specific sampling method is 'Stratified Random Sample' in which the first enterprises stratify by section (2-digit numeric code NACE.BG 2008) and then in each section by turnover. Each section has three stratums: 1-complete, 2, 3-sampling. Coefficient of variation is used as an indicator on precision. It is computed as a percentage. Coefficient of variation for second quarter 2018:

 

Section and divisions

Code

Coefficient of variation (%)

Accommodation and food service activities

I

0.1

Accommodation

55

0.4

Food service activities

56

0.2

 

Non-sampling error

Non-responders companies are valued according to the stratum in which they are faced. In stratum comprehensive assessment is done individually for each company using available information on trends in the establishment and adjusted trends in reported units on the same stratum and section. Sampling strata for each section evaluates non-responders using extrapolation coefficients calculated from data reported by enterprises in stratum corresponding section after elimination of extreme values. In these cases it is assumed that there are no significant differences in the behavior of responders and non-responders enterprises. The response rate for the second quarter of 2018 is 91% in terms of the number of enterprises and 94% in terms of turnover. Actions to reduce non-sampling errors: sending informative reminders and phone calls to collect data.

Timeliness and punctuality
Timeliness

NSI provides information on turnover index from 50 to 55 days after the end of reporting quarter.

Punctuality

Turnover indices present ontime, according to the terms in the Release Calendar presenting the results of the statistical surveys carried out by the National Statistical Institute.

Coherence and comparability
Comparability - geographical

The turnover indices are representative for the whole country, they are not representative for the regions of the country. To calculate the indices of turnover NSI applies a methodology in accordance with international standards. In this sense, the comparability of the indicators across countries can be considered as very good.

Comparability - over time

The quarterly indices are presented as time series from the first quarter of 2000 to the last reported quarter. In accordance with Regulation (EC) №472/2008 of January 2009 in the STS was introduced a new version of the Classification of Economic Activities (NACE.BG 2008). The data for all quarters back to 2000, were recalculates according to the new Classification (NACE.BG 2008) and published in the NSI website.  For conversion of data rows was applied ‘macro’ method. The indices at the old classification (NACE.BG-2003) are recalculated according to the new classification  (NACE.BG 2008) using transition coefficients, which are calculated from transition matrixes, based on micro data.

Regulation (EC)  №1165/98 requires 'Every five years, Member States shall rebase the indices using as base years ending with a 0 or a 5. All indices must be rebased on the new base year within three years after the end of the new base year'. In compliance with these requirements since January 2018 the base year for Short-term business statistics has been changed. All short-term indicators presented in the form of index are calculated and published at 2015 as a base year. The time series has beeen recalculated according to the new base year and are posted on the website of NSI.

Coherence - cross domain

The turnover indices are compared with the turnover indices calculated based on data from the annual survey on Structural Business Statistics. The differences are due to different coverage. SBS survey is conducted exhaustively and all enterprises are legally obliged to submit their Annual Reports to the National Statistical Institute. The STS surveys are sampling surveys. Sampling population includes companies with a turnover of over 10 thousand BGN. SBS is the source of turnover for calculation (reconciled) STS indicators.

Coherence - internal

 Not applicable.

Cost and burden

Actions to reduce costs and the burden on respondents: stratified sampling and data submitted online through Information system ’Short-term statistics’.

Data revision
Data revision - policy

The indices of turnover in hotels and restaurants are reconciled on the basis of comprehensive annual data from SBS.

Data revision - practice

The revised data are published on the NSI and transmitted to Eurostat.

Statistical processing
Source data

The indices are based on quarterly survey ’Activity of non-financial enterprises’. The sample includes about 2 000 enterprises which account for about 60% of the turnover of firms in the target population and is representative of all divisions defined in Regulation (EU) 1893/2006. In calculating the turnover index includes all receipts from sales (including revenues from sales of raw materials).

Frequency of data collection

Quarterly

Data collection

Data collection is done online (IS STS), by mail and by phone.

To reduce non-response IS STS has functionality to send an informative and a reminder letters to respondents:

  • Automatic formation of electronic letters informing respondents about the upcoming observations, in which they are included. To enable them to attach and reporting forms in PDF format and official letters;
  • Provide automatic sending of e-mail reminders to respondents who fail to report the time (when approaching the deadline for submission of reports by the subsystem). Provide automatic sending of e-mail reminders to respondents who fail to report the time (when approaching the deadline for submission of reports by the subsystem).
Data validation

Validation of data in the report:

When recording the data, the system carries out obligatory and recommended controls according to set with validation rules.

The system carries out the statutory and warning controls. In case there are errors, it displays a warning dialog error in the report. The system does not allow completion of the report until they have corrected these errors by statutory controls.

Validation of the output data:

Output data is verified at section level with regard to the previous quarter, the same quarter of the previous year and also with regard to extreme values, if necessary data is validated at the level of statistical units.

Data compilation

The turnover indices are calculated for both sections: ‘Accommodation’ and ‘Food service activities’. Price effects are eliminated by the use of deflators based on average prices of the base year (2015).

Adjustment

The software used for seasonal and working day adjustment is JDEMETRA2.2.0 (TRAMO-SEATS). 

First data rows are tested for calendar effects, which usually includes:

  • the different number of working days in a specific month;
  • the composition of working days;
  • the leap year effect, moving holidays such Easter. In working day adjustment the following approach is applied
  • RegARIMA approach, with all checks of significance and plausibility of the effects.
  • RegARIMA approach, with all pre-tests for number of regressors, length and composition of month, check of plausibility of effects (sign and size of estimated coefficients), etc.
  • RegARIMA approach, with pre-tests for Easter and other moving holiday effects.
  • The use of national calendar prepared by NSI experts. In seasonal adjustment the following approach is applied:
  • The series are checked for outliers of different types, but with the complete automatic procedure for detecting outliers;
  • Complete automatic procedure for automatic selection within a large number of models according to the options of the tool, after checking for model adequacy using standard statistical tests (e.g. normality, heteroskedasticity, serial correlation, etc.);
  • Fully automatic decomposition scheme selection using information criteria.The decomposition scheme specifies how the various components - trend-cycle, seasonal and calendar component and irregular – combine to form the original series. Usually, the default decomposition scheme is multiplicative, because in most economic time series, the magnitudes of the seasonal component vary proportionally to the level of the series;
  • Direct seasonal adjustment is performed. All time series, including aggregates, are seasonally adjusted on an individual basis.

Revisions to seasonally adjusted data are published in accordance with accepted revision policy and release calendar that is aligned with the revision policy and the revision calendar for the unadjusted data.

Comment
Metadata Structure Definition in SDMX 2.1: ESMS_MSD+BNSI+2.0+SDMX.2.1.xml
Metadata Structure Definition in SDMX 2.0: ESMS_MSD+BNSI+2.0+SDMX.2.0.xml
  • Seasonally unadjusted
  • Seasonally adjusted
  • Working day adjusted
  • Friday, 23 August 2019 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the second quarter of 2019 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data decreased by 1.3% compared to the first quarter of 2019. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 3.6%.

  • Thursday, 23 May 2019 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the first quarter of 2019 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 6.3% compared to the fourth quarter of 2018. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 7.5%.

  • Monday, 25 February 2019 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the fourth quarter of 2018 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 1.9% compared to the third quarter of 2018. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 1.7%.

  • Friday, 23 November 2018 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the third quarter of 2018 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 1.0% compared to the second quarter of 2018. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 4.2%.

  • Thursday, 23 August 2018 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the second quarter of 2018 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 2.8% compared to the first quarter of 2018. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 2.9%.

  • Friday, 25 May 2018 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the first quarter of 2018 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 3.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2017. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 4.6%.

  • Friday, 23 February 2018 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the fourth quarter of 2017 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 1.0% compared to the third quarter of 2017. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 2.6%.

  • Thursday, 23 November 2017 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the third quarter of 2017 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 3.1% compared to the second quarter of 2017. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 2.2%.

  • Wednesday, 23 August 2017 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the second quarter of 2017 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 2.4% compared to the first quarter of 2017. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 7.1%.

  • Thursday, 25 May 2017 - 11:00

    According to the preliminary data for the first quarter of 2017 the total turnover index in section ‘Transportation, storage and post’, calculated on the basis of seasonally adjusted data increased by 2.4% compared to the fourth quarter of 2016. In section ‘Information and communication’ the turnover index grew by 0.4%.

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