‘Statistics’ Magazine, issue 4/2017

The National Statistical Institute informs users of statistical information that No. 4/2017 ‘Statistics’ Magazine is published on the NSI’s website. The issue is in Bulgarian language with summaries in Bulgarian, English and Russian and includes sections as follows:
 
• Theory and Methodology of statistical surveys
• Statistical surveys and analysis
• Information, reviews, consultations

The section Theory and Methodology of statistical surveys  incudes the articles:

• The future of the surveys ... and surveys of the future: possible usages of the Big Data in the production of the statistical information - authors Dr. Bogdan Bogdanov, Deputy President of the National Statistical Institute, and Galya Stateva, National Statistical Institute, Sofia

The purpose of the following article is to acquaint the reader with the possible applications of Big Data when producing statistical data. Several specific opportunities and challenges for the official statistics are outlined in regard to the use of Big Data.

In the first part of the article the authors provide some examples regarding the collection, storage and management of fuzzy (not well-structured) data. The assessment of the quality of Big Data is emphasized for the purposes of official statistics, including their selectivity.

The second part of the article is reviewing the best practices in Big Data usage and the administrative sources of information for statistical purposes, such as: evaluation of the population density in Europe using a mobile network, mapping the public opinion, attitude and behavior, predicting the unemployment, scanning of data and using the Internet as a source for the statistics of prices, using Big Data as a source for examining domestic budgets, modeling sample survey data by ‘smart’ electrical meaters devices, etc. Special attention is paid to sharing the experience of Eurostat when calculating the ‘flash’ estimates of the harmonized index of consumer prices (HICP).

The section Statistical surveys and analysis includes the articles:

• ‘Mortality’ and ‘birth rate’ indicators in Demography - definitions and terminology - author  Prof. Marta Sugareva, University of  Plovdiv ‘Paisii Hilendarski’

The article aims to provide clarification regarding the content of the concepts of ‘mortality’ and ‘fertility’ in relation to various speculative interpretations of demographic data in Bulgaria. The main statistical indicators are outlined, emphasizing that gross mortality and birth rates (per 1 000 population) can be misleading due to the impact on the age structure of the population. In order to avoid incorrect claims, such as ‘mortality in Bulgaria is one of the highest in the world’ the article suggests using the ‘average life expectancy’ and ‘average number of children per woman’ terms (synthetic birth rate coefficient).

• The estimation of poverty based on the multivariate statistical analysis  - author  Yashar Pasha, Republic of Azerbaijan

The article provides general information on multidimensional poverty indicators, describes multidimensional poverty statistics, presents the factors affecting poverty. The focus is on the importance of the regression model in the analysis of multidimensional poverty. The article also reflects on the algorithm method used for measuring the poverty level deprivation in education, healthcare and living standards at individual level, together with practical application. The methodology for calculating multidimensional poverty index is presented by way of example.

• Cognitive potential of the self-determination coefficient of the statistical analysis - author Associate Professor Lyubomir Ivanov, Economic Academy ‘D. A. Tsenov’ - Svishtov

The article discusses the possibilities of applying the self-determination coefficient in the process of statistical analysis of dynamics. It outlines how the coefficient is evaluated and how its statistical significance is checked. A total of five strands are available in which the coefficient can be used: As a synthesized indicator of the available regularities in a particular time series; as a potential opportunity to build a linear development model; As a measure of predictability of the time series; As an alternative random order test; As a basis for more accurately assessing the adequacy of built patterns for smoothing the time series. Based on data for three demographic indicators, the application of the coefficient in all five directions is illustrated.

• Bulgarian agriculture and its European dimensions - author  Girgina Nikolova,

National Statistical Institute, Sofia

This article reviews the main trends in the development of agriculture in Bulgaria for the last fifteen years. For this purpose, changes in production structures, the workforce, the value of agricultural production, added value created and income from agricultural activities, including as a result of the implementation of the principles and mechanisms of the EU Common Agricultural Policy, are reviewed. Statistical data from farm structure surveys, crop and livestock statistics, farm typology, agricultural accounts for agriculture, agricultural land market in the country are used to analyse the trends.

• Main aspects from the remuneration system in the National Statistical Institute and the impact of the legislative changes and structural reforms on them - author Neli Yarlovska,  National Statistical Institute, Sofia

An analysis of the main aspects of the remuneration system in the state administration and in particular of the employees of the NSI Headquarters is made. For this purpose, the influence of both the factors typical of the respective organization, such as the type of organizational culture and structure, as well as the impact of the external environment and the amendments of the statutory regulation regulating the salaries in the state administration, are taken into account.           

In order to achieve completeness in the understanding of remuneration management policies, they are traced in the context of administrative reform, with three periods in their development. A perverse moment when determining the salaries in the state administration represents the new payment model introduced on 1.07.2012. This is also the reason why in the empirical part of the article the remuneration of the employees of the NSI Head Office should be examined through the prism of the normative regulation before and after 1.07.2012. The factors that lead to wage increases are: staff optimization policy, structural changes in process management, and rational use of budget resources. The basis for determining the size of the increase is the annual employee assessment.             

It could be summed up that the new remuneration system, which is aimed at linking the remuneration of employees with the results achieved, poses serious challenges as well. In order to overcome them, the negative effects need to be taken into account in future changes to the legal framework. The payment mechanisms discussed in the article cannot unambiguously denied or favorited. Like the broken clock, which shows true hours twice a day, each of them has some potential.

The section Information, reviews, consultations presents information about:

• Participation in working meeting ‘Providing Basic Information for Purchasing Power Parity’ (Lisbon, Portugal, 20-21 March 2017) - author Kalinka Petrova, National Statistical Institute, Sofia

The purpose of the workshop was a joint discussion of some methodological issues, assessment the work done and planning the upcoming tasks in the field of the following observations of consumer goods and services representatives, on which 37 European countries are working according to an established international timetable:

1. Survey E16-1 ‘Everything for the Home and Garden’ - a summary report on the completed monitoring of the stages of work, results, main issues and conclusions at the level of the 37 participating countries

2. Survey E16-2 ‘Transport, restaurants and hotels’ - the results of the current monitoring received after the completion of the first phase (Validation Round 0 - Clearing errors and VR1) validation of the primary price information provided by the participating countries were presented and discussed; Presenting the results of the hotel questionnaire

3. Survey E17-1 ‘Services’ - a toolkit for carrying out the upcoming monitoring as well as a coordinated version of the common list of service representatives, specific instructions for collection and entry into the Eurostat PPP database were presented, some methodological questions were discussed

4. Survey E17-2 ‘Furniture and Health’ - Analysis of the summary results of the preliminary study conducted by each of the countries on the availability of goods / services, brands and models presentability in the market. Stages and timing of the survey

5. Survey E18-1 ‘Food, beverages and tobacco’ - an overview of the upcoming Consumer monitoring - structure, classifications, recommendations and implementation stages was made for the first half of 2018.

The article also presents the express data from consumer prices of goods and services price surveys for 2016, as well as brief methodological notes and general concepts in the area of purchasing power parities.

Annual subscription (4 issues): EUR 22
Price per issue 4/2017: EUR 7
 
The publication can be purchased at:
• Multi-Domain Statistics and User Services Directorate, NSI,
‘P. Volov’ № 2 Str., Sofia 1038.
• The Regional statistical offices of the NSI.
 
Payment is made:
1. Cash - in the Multi-Domain Statistics and User Services Directorate, NSI,
‘P. Volov’ № 2 Str., Sofia 1038.
2. Bank transfer
NSI bank account:
IBAN: BG84 BNBG 9661 3000 1190 01
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