Positive tendencies observed in the basic demographic development indicators during the last years continue in 2008. There is a delay in the rates of population decrease mainly due to the improved indicators on natural population movement, increased life expectancy and decreased influence of international migration. Main problem of the country demographic development is the still high mortality level, relatively lower life expectancy compared to the other European countries, as well as the negative net international migration. Nevertheless, the positive tendencies observed in the demographic development during the last years are a good basis for overcoming of the serious demographic crisis passed during the last decade of previous century.
1. Main tendencies in population number and structure
At the end of 2008 population in Bulgaria is 7 606 551 persons. Due to the negative natural population increase and negative net international migration, the population number decreased by 33 700 persons or 0.4% within one year.
| Years | Total | Male | Female |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 8 669 269 | 4 269 998 | 4 399 271 |
| 1995 | 8 384 715 | 4 103 368 | 4 281 347 |
| 2001 | 7 891 095 | 3 841 163 | 4 049 932 |
| 2005 | 7 718 750 | 3 743 327 | 3 975 423 |
| 2006 | 7 679 290 | 3 720 932 | 3 958 358 |
| 2007 | 7 640 238 | 3 699 689 | 3 940 549 |
| 2008 | 7 606 551 | 3 681 280 | 3 925 271 |
Female population share is higher - 51.6%. 1 066 women correspond to 1 000 men in 2008.
At the end of 2008 5407.1 thousand persons or 71.1% are living in urban areas and 2 199.5 thousand or 28.9% - in rural.
Process of population ageing continue, which leads to increase of population mean age. It is 40.4 years in 2001, compared to 41.5 in 2007. The population mean age at present is 41.7 years totally for the country.
Tendency of population ageing leads to changes in the age structure - distribution of population under, at and over working age. Number of population at and over working age is influenced not only by the population ageing, but by the legislative changes in the retirement age also1.
| Years | Total | Age groups | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under working age - % | At working age - % | Over working age - % | ||
| 1990 | 100 | 21.6 | 55.5 | 22.9 |
| 1995 | 100 | 19.1 | 56.6 | 24.3 |
| 2001 | 100 | 16.3 | 59.2 | 24.5 |
| 2005 | 100 | 14.8 | 62.4 | 22.8 |
| 2006 | 100 | 14.6 | 62.8 | 22.6 |
| 2007 | 100 | 14.5 | 63.0 | 22.5 |
| 2008 | 100 | 14.5 | 63.2 | 22.3 |
At the end of 2008 the population at working age is 4 806 thousand persons or 63.2% of the total population. It decreased by 11 thousand compared to the previous year.
Population under, at and over working age (number)
In 2008 the population over working age is 1 701 thousand persons. It decreased by nearly 16 thousand compared to the previous year due not only to the natural decrease (mortality), but to the exclusion of part of women from this category also (retirement age is changed and part of female population is referred to the population at working age).
Decrease of population under working age continues. The number of population in this age category is 1 100 thousand in 2008 and it decreased by 6 thousand compared to the previous year.
2. Fertility
Number of births in the country continues to increase and fertility also. Number of children born in 2008 is 78 283, 77 712 of which or 99.3% are live born. Number of live born children increased by 2 363 compared to the previous year. Crude birth rate is 10.2 2. The number of live born children registered in 2008 is the highest for the last 14 years and the crude birth rate reaches the 1992 level.
Number of live born males (39 986) is by 2 260 higher compared to the live born females (37 726) or 943 females correspond to 1 000 males.
Crude birth rate in Bulgaria is already at the level registered in number of European countries3 like Greece, Poland, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Switzerland. Lower birth rate is observed in Germany, Austria and Lithuania - about and under 9.5. Nevertheless, the birth rate in great part of European countries is over 11, the highest in Ireland (16.2), France (12.9) and United Kingdom (12.7).
| Years | Crude birth rate () | Natural increase () | Total fertility rate 4 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 12.1 | -0.4 | 1.81 |
| 1995 | 8.6 | -5.0 | 1.23 |
| 2001 | 8.6 | -5.6 | 1.24 |
| 2005 | 9.2 | -5.4 | 1.31 |
| 2006 | 9.6 | -5.1 | 1.38 |
| 2007 | 9.8 | -5.0 | 1.42 |
| 2008 | 10.2 | -4.3 | 1.48 |
Increase of birth rate during the last four years is mainly due to the increase of fertility, measured throughout TFR. The average number of children born per women in 2001 is 1.24, compared to 1.42 in 2007 and 1.48 in 2008. The last value is the highest after 1992, when the TFR is 1.54 children. It should be taken into account that the number of women in reproductive age decreases in parallel to the TFR increase, or the increased number of births is mainly due to the delayed births and to births of higher rank children.
Marriages and live born children (number); Total fertility rate
There is a tendency observed since 1991-1992 of increase of the absolute number and share of illegitimate births. Their number increases continuously - from 18.5% in 1992, to 42.1% in 2001 and 50.2% in 2007. Number of illegitimate live births in 2008 is 39 694 or 51.1%. There is data available on child father for 65.1% of the illegitimate live births. No data is available for child father in 17.8% of the total number of live births.
High level of illegitimate live births is due to the considerable increase of cohabiting/partnership. Comparison of the average age of mother at first child birth (25.4 years) and at first marriage (26.1) shows that the birth of first child precedes the marriage.
3. Mortality
There is a decrease of mortality observed in 2008 compared to the previous year. Number of deaths is 110 523 persons or 2 481 less than in 2007. Mortality rate5 (14.5) decreases by 0.3%.
Higher mortality is observed for male population (15.8) compared to female (13.3) and for rural (20.4) compared to urban areas (12.1).
| Years | Crude death rate - | Infant mortality rate - 6 | Premature mortality - % 7 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1990 | 12.5 | 14.8 | 29.7 |
| 1995 | 13.6 | 14.8 | 28.3 |
| 2001 | 14.2 | 14.4 | 25.2 |
| 2005 | 14.6 | 10.4 | 24.6 |
| 2006 | 14.7 | 9.7 | 24.6 |
| 2007 | 14.8 | 9.2 | 24.1 |
| 2008 | 14.5 | 8.6 | 24.1 |
Premature mortality remains the same as in 2007 - 24.1%. It is higher during the previous years - 25.2% in 2001 and 24.6% in 2006. In other words, still high mortality level is due to the deaths in higher ages.
Mortality level in Bulgaria is rather higher compared to the European countries. Lowest mortality is registered in Ireland - 6.4, Luxembourg, Netherlands and Switzerland - 8.1. Nearly the same mortality level is observed for France and Spain - 8.4 and 8.6. Mortality varies between 9.0 and 10.2 for most of the European countries. There are some countries (Romania, Estonia, Hungary and Lithuania), where the mortality is between 11.7 - 13.5. Bulgaria and Latvia have the same mortality levels.
After reaching a high level of infant mortality in 1997 - 17.5 it continuously decreases and is 9.2 in 2007. 668 children up to 1 year of age die in 2008 or 8.6. This is the lowest infant mortality level for the whole demographic statistics history in Bulgaria.
No matter the continuous decrease of infant mortality it is higher compared to the European levels. Infant mortality levels vary between 3.0 and 5.0 in most of the European countries. Close to the Bulgarian infant mortality is observed in Latvia (8.7). In Hungary, Poland, Lithuania, Slovakia and Cyprus the infant mortality varies between 5.9 θ 6.2. Higher, compared to Bulgaria, infant mortality is registered in Romania only - 12.0.
Crude death rate and infant mortality rate ()
Life expectancy at birth for the period 2006 - 2008 is 73.0 years or 0.3 years higher compared to 2005 - 2007 period. Life expectancy for men is 69.5 years and for women is nearly seven years higher - 76.6.
Life expectancy at birth for male population in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania is lower and in Hungary and Romania - the same as in Bulgaria. The rest European countries have higher life expectancy at birth for male population reaching up to 79 years. Concerning the female population, close to the Bulgarian is the life expectancy at birth in Romania and Latvia only. In Estonia, Check Republic, Hungary, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia it varies between 77 and 80 years. In the rest European countries it is over 80 years and in France and Spain - over 84 years.
4. Natural increase
Population natural increase is the difference between the number of births and deaths observed. As the number of deaths is higher compared to the number of births since 1990, the difference is negative and the number of country population decreases gradually. The absolute number of natural increase in 2008 is minus 32 811 persons. The registered population decrease is the smallest one after 1995. Natural increase rate is minus 4.38.
Crude birth rate, crude death rate and natural increase rate ()
Within Europe (besides in Bulgaria) negative natural increase is observed (but lower) in Estonia, Romania, Germany, Hungary and Lithuania - from minus 1.2 to minus 4.0. Negative is the natural increase in Latvia also and its value is equal to the Bulgarian. Natural increase of population is positive in the rest European countries and varies between 0.2 in Slovakia, Austria and Greece to 1.9 in Denmark, Finland and Belgium. Relatively high population natural increase is observed in Luxembourg (3.4) and France (4.5). Highest is the natural increase in Ireland (9.8).
5. Marriages and divorces
Number of marriages continues to decrease in 2008. Number of de jure marriage in 2008 is 27 722 or nearly 2 thousand lower compared to the previous year. Number of de jure marriages decrease mainly due to the increased number of cohabiting/partnership, which is much more preferred.
There are 14 104 divorces registered in 2008 or 2 200 less than in 2007. More than 80% are registered in urban areas. Mutual agreement is the reason for divorce in nearly 60% of the total number of divorces, incomparability of temperament - 26% and virtual parting - 9%.
Crude marriage rate and crude divorce rate ()
6. Internal and international migration
From the beginning of 2007 the internal migration includes persons who have changed their current address within the country and outside it.
Nearly 123 thousand persons have changed their addresses within the country in 2008 or 28 thousand less than in 2007.
As a result of internal migration, the rural population decreased by nearly 10 thousand persons and the respective increase is observed for urban population.
During the last year, 2 112 persons declared at civil registration offices a change of their current address in Bulgaria with new ones abroad. At the same time, 1 236 persons have changed their addresses abroad with addresses in Bulgaria. As a result of the two flows, the country population decreased by 876 persons. It has to be taken into account that the international migration covers considerably higher number of persons9.
7. Population projection
Three-variant target projection is developed by the National Statistical Institute on the country demographic development up to 2060. Separate variants respect the Eurostat methodology and quantitative hypotheses on population reproduction.
I variant (target): The variant is equivalent to the Eurostat projection for Bulgaria. It is defined as realistic and is consistent with the European Union regulations on demographic and social-economic development of the member states. According to this variant, the country population will be 7 137 thousand in 2020, 6 302 thousand in 2040 and 5 475 thousand in 2060.
II variant (relative acceleration): The variant suggests that the country demographic development will be accompanied by favourable social-economic processes. According to this variant, the country population will be 7 220 thousand in 2020, 6 634 thousand in 2040 and 6 086 thousand in 2060.
III variant (relative delay): Projection on population development is done under the hypothesis for unfavourable social-economic processes in the country. According to this variant, the country population will be about 7 095 thousand in 2020, 6 134 thousand in 2040 and 5 166 thousand in 2060.
Population projection for the period 2010 - 2060
Population projections developed are convergent and reflect the overall tendencies of demographic development in EU countries. The realization of projections (acceleration or delay) depends to a great extent on regulations concerning country demographic and social-economic politics, as well as on the international economic conditions.
